New Study Reveals Where Climate-Friendly Fuels Will Thrive by 2050

A new study has analysed the costs and potential of 21 climate-friendly fuel technologies worldwide. Researchers from the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) compared production expenses across different regions and over time. Their findings highlight how local conditions shape the economic viability of these fuels.

The research, part of the SHELTERED project and the reFuel.ch consortium, was funded by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy. It examined factors like resource availability, financing costs, and infrastructure to determine where each technology could thrive. No single solution emerged as the global leader—costs varied widely depending on location.

Blue and turquoise hydrogen currently offer the best value in gas-rich areas such as the U.S., the Middle East, and Central Asia. Meanwhile, green hydrogen is set to become more competitive by 2050 in countries with strong renewable resources. Australia, Canada, Chile, Morocco, Namibia, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the southwestern U.S. were identified as top spots for low-cost production. These regions benefit from high sunlight, cheap electricity, access to water, and existing export routes. A proposed European pipeline network could also cut costs for domestically produced climate-friendly fuels. The study stressed that these fuels are vital for decarbonising tough sectors like aviation, shipping, and heavy industry.

The findings provide a roadmap for future investments in climate-friendly fuels. Regions with favourable conditions—such as abundant renewables or low capital costs—are likely to lead in cost-effective production. The research underscores the need for tailored strategies based on local strengths.