Philippines Unveils Impact-Based Forecasts to Transform Weather Warnings

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is set to launch a new impact-based forecast (IBF) system. This initiative aims to improve how weather risks are communicated to the public. The first IBF, focusing on severe winds, will be introduced in July. The IBF differs from traditional forecasts by shifting from a hazard-based approach to one that explains what the weather will do. It projects the severity of damage extreme events like cyclones may cause in specific areas. By assessing a locality’s exposure and vulnerability, it categorises potential harm into four impact levels.

PAGASA is currently piloting four IBFs in selected cities. These cover severe winds, rain-induced landslides, storm surges, and flooding. The system will complement PAGASA’s regular weather advisories.

The IBF also helps communities and local governments prepare. It pinpoints where hazards may strike and recommends actions three to five days in advance. After the severe winds IBF, PAGASA plans to expand the system nationwide for storm surges. The new forecast system will run alongside PAGASA’s existing updates. It provides clearer risk assessments to guide early planning. Local authorities and residents can use it to make better-informed decisions before extreme weather arrives.